Wednesday, September 07, 2005

 

Chernobyl's Back In The News

Back at the end of April I posted, in three parts, recollections of visiting Chernobyl in 1991 - here - here - here. At the time there was a full court press on to raise money to reinforce the sarcophagus -- the great vault that holds the nasty nuclear core that remains there.

Now there is a study out that shows the health effects of the accident are not nearly as severe as many believed. From the NYTimes
Nearly 20 years after the huge accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine, a new scientific report has found that its aftereffects on health and the environment have not proved as dire as scientists had predicted.

The report was prepared by a panel of more than 100 experts convened by United Nations agencies

It says huge compensation programs for people in the Chernobyl region have become "a major barrier to the region's recovery," both by creating a culture of dependency and by soaking up a high percentage of the region's resources. It recommends that the compensation programs be cut back.
I am not terribly surprized at this finding, but I think there needs to be some clarification of what is, and is not being said.

Chernobyl became, almost instantly, a great extortionist lever. There are some that believe that is was Chernobyl that truly brought down the Soviet Union -- between the costs cited in the last paragraph I quote and the loss of confidence in the regime the accident engendered, I think it is fair to say Chernobyl played a significant role in the downfall of that state. I doubt any factor, in the end, can be singled out as the most important.

This report really is vitally important in the economic recovery of the region and particularly Ukraine. But ending this benefits extortion, should not be confused with the very necessary work of properly maintaining the site security and the integrity of the sarcophagus. Lying inside that sarcophagus is the most toxic pile of material known to mankind. Should it be allowed to escape, the nightmare health scenarios upon which the extortion has been based could become a reality.

This report is, in the end, a testament to those that fought and sacrificed to put out the fire and contain the accident. They did their job well, and we owe it to them to maintain it.

And as a side note, the reporting on this study is amazing. Surprizingly, the NYTimes headline read, quite honestly

Experts Find Reduced Effects of Chernobyl

But the BBC chose to head it's story

Chernobyl 'likely to kill 4,000'

Only in the second paragraph of the story did they say
The figure, in the report by the Chernobyl Forum, is much lower than other estimates.
Note that even in admitting, belatedly, the lower risk estimates, they report the result as anomalous, as opposed to definitive.

Sometimes, I am truly amazed at how the politics of a situation can transcend the science. Most sad, in my mind, is that there really are people hurting from this, and all this politics overshadows that. They are reduced to pawns in the power and wealth transfer game, in the name of protecting them. That is really sad.

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