Saturday, September 17, 2005

 

Fact And Conjecture

Know the difference. This Scientific American piece illustrates it well.

Fact:
According to an analysis published today in Science, the number of Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes has almost doubled in the past 35 years.
Conjecture:
Because tropical storms draw energy from ocean water to gain strength, it has been hypothesized that global warming--and the warmer waters associated with it--could lead to stronger hurricanes.
Truth:
In their report, the authors conclude that before the observed trend can be attributed to global warming both a longer global data record and a better understanding of how hurricanes fit into general atmospheric and oceanic circulation trends is required.
And we have not even touched on the question of whether global warming is a man-made or "natural" phenomena.

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