Monday, January 23, 2006

 

Thinking About Iran

The seeming inevitable nuclearization of Iran is leaving a lot of very smart people exploring the options. Here is a look at some of the diplomatic options. But increasingly calls for military options are being seen and seen forcefully.

The Corner points to this piece making the case for war. Dadmanly points to this piece examining the military option as well and makes his own case for it.

For me this is simple. Years ago my father advised me that when investing you invest in the company's management. Good people run a good company, everything else is a bubble. When it comes to International relations I think there is a corrolary. Diplomacy only works with reasonable people, nutters you end up at war with. Hussein was a first order nutter. Kim Jong Il is a huge nutter, but we can starve him out. We are in seige war with him and we are and will prevail, and why push it to open war if we can do it this way, its cheaper. Which brings us to Iran. There is a new nutter in charge, and given the oil reserves, seige warfare isn't going to work.

We are seeing Russia and China trying to smooth things over for the same reason France did with Iraq - economic self-interest. So if they don't overthrow the nutter and soon, I think war is inevitable, and we sure as heck ought to do it before they actually get the bomb built, cause the nutter won't hesitate to use it.

Personally, I think we haven't started it for two reasons. One, the current political instabilty in Isreal, and two, I think we are still hoping a revolution will happen. We can wait a little while longer for those factors, but not too long.

All I can say is I hope the planners are real busy and I hope the pre-positioning is underway.

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