Wednesday, October 29, 2008
It's All In The Numbers
Kruse Kronicle looks at the numbers on "pollution" and argues for Environmental Transition Theory This is the idea that as an economy develops pollution increases and then as it solves certain problems, it decreases.
Since Lomborg, "environmentalists" have argued that the transition has occurred through activism and subsequent regulation. As presented here by Kruse, it can be argued that too much regulation can, in fact, stifle the transition, slowing both it and its effectiveness, simply by slowing economic development. That is an important point.
Kruse concludes his piece by pointing out that he does not address CO2 emissions and asking what the correct response is. Lomborg addresses global warming outside of this transition discussion, concluding that its real, unavoidable and simply cheaper to cope with it than fight against it. Goklany, as cited here by Kruse, has manged to develop a transition model that will allow for the same effect with regards to CO2 and global warming.
I am all for this later approach if for no other reason than the anthropogenic origins of global warming remain HIGHLY in doubt. The economic incentives to reduce CO2 emissions seem very real. Low emission vehicles are sold at a premium, of course it helps in this age of $3-4 gas that they are also low fuel consumers, but none the less, people seem willing to pay more to emit less. That alone is going to provide tremendous force to lower CO2 emissions, without or without a Kyoto protocol, or other regulatory action.
Here is my question: Do the "economic forces" we see at play here represent the hand of God, active in human history? There are so many issues in our wonderful world of science that I am deeply concerned if we are equipped to deal with them. So often we advise in church to "Let go and let God." Now, of course, in a religiously pluralistic society, such a phrase is instantly rejected when discussing social policy.
But having said that, we often in discussing public policy, fail to distinguish between knowledge and wisdom. It can be said that wisdom is the application of knowledge and they are two very different things. Even if we do not "let go and let God" on a societal level, we may very well need to allow time for our wisdom to catch up to our knowledge.
How come we never hear a politician give a speech that encourages waiting?
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Goklany points to the need for sufficient time for the technology generated by rising affluence to emerge and be deployed. Consequently, technological innovation may lag to varying degrees depending on the particular set of issues a nation confronts. Furthermore, critical to the performance of the Environmental Transition Curve are democracy, property rights, free press, and rule of law. Individuals must have just social institutions by which they can make their growing concerns felt.The essential arguement is old and has been under major discussion since the Lomborg book. However, Kruse here is discussing a slight modification to that discussion that brings in the social/governmental factors.
Since Lomborg, "environmentalists" have argued that the transition has occurred through activism and subsequent regulation. As presented here by Kruse, it can be argued that too much regulation can, in fact, stifle the transition, slowing both it and its effectiveness, simply by slowing economic development. That is an important point.
Kruse concludes his piece by pointing out that he does not address CO2 emissions and asking what the correct response is. Lomborg addresses global warming outside of this transition discussion, concluding that its real, unavoidable and simply cheaper to cope with it than fight against it. Goklany, as cited here by Kruse, has manged to develop a transition model that will allow for the same effect with regards to CO2 and global warming.
I am all for this later approach if for no other reason than the anthropogenic origins of global warming remain HIGHLY in doubt. The economic incentives to reduce CO2 emissions seem very real. Low emission vehicles are sold at a premium, of course it helps in this age of $3-4 gas that they are also low fuel consumers, but none the less, people seem willing to pay more to emit less. That alone is going to provide tremendous force to lower CO2 emissions, without or without a Kyoto protocol, or other regulatory action.
Here is my question: Do the "economic forces" we see at play here represent the hand of God, active in human history? There are so many issues in our wonderful world of science that I am deeply concerned if we are equipped to deal with them. So often we advise in church to "Let go and let God." Now, of course, in a religiously pluralistic society, such a phrase is instantly rejected when discussing social policy.
But having said that, we often in discussing public policy, fail to distinguish between knowledge and wisdom. It can be said that wisdom is the application of knowledge and they are two very different things. Even if we do not "let go and let God" on a societal level, we may very well need to allow time for our wisdom to catch up to our knowledge.
How come we never hear a politician give a speech that encourages waiting?
Technorati Tags:environment, global warming, wisdom, knowledge
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